reactions to last week plus nfl predictions
As a fan of Notre Dame, I love it anytime Brian Kelly loses a game. Sadly, LSU played Florida last week and there was zero chance of them losing. It should still be concerning for LSU that they could not put up any points on Florida. Especially since Florida QB DJ Lagway threw 5 picks in the game. After the inflated stats of the first game in which the Gators scored 55 against Long Island, they have scored 16 and 10 respectively. LSU hasn’t been much better though. They only scored 17 against Clemson. That’s understandable as Clemson is a top team. But then they only put up 23 on Louisiana Tech. So is the Gator defense that good or is the LSU offense not as good? We’ll find out more this week as the Gators play a Miami team that just put up 49 on that same USF team that beat Florida 18-16.
Speaking of Notre Dame, a lot is being made of the missed PAT by the ND kicker on Saturday against Texas A&M that gave them a six point lead instead of seven late in that game. The ND defense still had a chance to get a stop to close the game out with a victory. The missed extra point hurt because if/when Texas A&M scored, they likely would have kicked their own PAT for the tie to go to OT, rather than go for two and the win. Who knows how OT would have played out. Just don’t put the entire weight of that loss on the kicker when ND still could have got a stop. Notre Dame plays Purdue this week and Purdue has always been a thorn in the side of the Irish.
My game of the week for week four in college is 9th ranked Illinois taking on 19th ranked Indiana. Growing up in a small town forty miles south of Chicago in the early 80’s is what made me a fan of Notre Dame. And between college football and college basketball, I always watched Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Notre Dame, Northwestern and DePaul. Funny that DePaul is my favorite CBB team and not ND. So I am really looking forward to this match-up.
Another horrendous week against the spread for me as I was 7-9. An incredible 12-4 straight up.
Straight Up: 23-9 for the season
ATS: 13-19
Miami @ Buffalo (-12.5): I’m 0-2 on the Thursday game this year. Maybe I change my luck. I don’t like large spreads which is one of the reasons I stay away from betting on college football. Even though they played better last week, Miami is still a dumpster fire. Buffalo by twenty.
Atlanta @ Carolina (+4.5): Speaking of dumpster fires. Can we have a moment of silence for the Bryce Young hype machine. Atlanta’s defense was impressive against Minnesota last week. To be fair, JJ McCarthy has been terrible for seven out of the eight quarters he has played so far. Which will make most defenses look good (right Chicago?) Can the Atlanta offense get going? Maybe this is the week. Atlanta with a TD win.
Green Bay @ Cleveland (+8.5): Two things here. I’m done discounting how good the Packers are and I’m done hyping up Flacco and the Browns D. So of course, this will be the week that the Packers play like crap and the Browns step up. Packers by 17.
Houston @ Jacksonville (-.5): What a decision this is. CJ Stroud who hasn’t played that well against the Jags who have receivers that just aren’t trying. I watched the Monday Night game between the Bucs and Houston and Stroud is not playing well. I trust the Jags offense more than Houston.
Cincinatti @ Minnesota (-2.5): With a healthy Joe Burrow this is an easy call. Carson Wentz plays for an injured McCarthy which might be a blessing in disguise for Minny. Jake Browning is a good QB but that Minny defense will harass him all day. Minnesota for both.
Pittsburgh @ New England (+1.5): I like New England in this one. The Steelers play better than they did last week but it won’t be enough.
LA Rams @ Philadelphia (-3.5): I originally had the Eagles minus the points in this one but the more I thought about it; I had to change it. The Eagles are struggling to throw that ball. Whether that is by design or not, they still aren’t playing well. This Rams defense might be legit and Stafford is playing really good. I’ll take the Rams straight up.
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay (-6.5): The Jets are starting Tyrod Taylor because of Justin Fields concussion. Won’t matter. The Jets should have treated Aaron Rodgers better and they’d have an actual QB. Bucs by a lot.
Indianapolis @ Tennessee (+3.5): What a surprise Indianapolis has been huh? Indy with the easy victory.
Las Vegas @ Washington (-3.5): We saw that real Geno Smith experience last week. But Jayden Daniels needs to play a lot better than he did against the Packers last Thursday. Still, I think Washington wins by ten.
Denver @ Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5): I have yet to pick a different winner straight up than the spread. Doesn’t change in this game. The Chargers look really good behind Justin Herbert.
New Orleans @ Seattle: (-7.5): I had to take a deeper dive in both of these teams. New Orleans has played in two tough games, losing by seven or less both times. It surprised me honestly. I think Seattle wins straight up but I’ll grab New Orleans plus the points. My first time this week.
Dallas @ Chicago (-.5): How the hell is Chicago favored? I can not put any faith in Chicago until that defense gets sorted out. And it won’t be this week. Say what you want about Dak Prescott. But he has been a top ten QB when healthy for several years now. It hasn’t resulted in playoff wins but during the regular season, look out. Dallas plus the half point.
Arizona @ San Francisco (-1.5): Mac Jones played pretty well last week. Can it continue to this week? I think it can. San Fran wins by seven.
Kansas City @ New York Giants (+5.5): Will the real NY Giants please stand up? They scored all of 6 points against Washington and they would have won last week if Brandon Aubrey wasn’t superman disguised as an NFL kicker. Oh, and they also scored 37 points in that game with Russell Wilson throwing the ball for 450 yards. His way of just chucking the ball is not sustainable. KC will win this one straight up but take the Giants plus the points.
Detroit @ Baltimore (-5.5): Baltimore has a great defense but I truly believe that the Lions woke up last week against Chicago. They won’t beat Baltimore in this one but they will at least cover the spread.
As always, bet responsibly. These picks are for entertainment purposes only.