western conference winners and losers
Last week I did the Eastern Conference winners and losers seen here. I did mention that the Western Conference is more wide open than people realize and I will explore that as I go along. Quite a few teams improved. OKC is also more vulnerable than people might think.
Dallas Mavericks: Winner. I don’t know how the team that traded away Luka Doncic can be a winner in the off-season and yet, here we are. It relies solely on Cooper Flagg becoming the player that most believe that he will become. This year will mostly be a wash as they wait for Kyrie Irving to recuperate from his torn ACL. But, they still have an outside shot of making a run towards the play-in. Replacing Spencer Dinwiddie with D’Angelo Russell is a step back though. Assuming that Russel will be a starter, it’s him running with Klay Thompson, PJ Washington, Anthony Davis and Derrick Lively II. A fairly deep bench as well. I am honestly curious to see if the funniest timeline happens. More on that at the end of this exercise.
Denver Nuggets: Winner. A really good off-season for the former champs. The main issue for Denver last season was the lack of depth. They fixed that with the signings of Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. They needed a big man to spell Jokic and got a big one in Jonas Valanciunas. They had to trade away Michael Porter Jr which will sting a bit on the court, even though that trade netted them Cam Johnson. More importantly though, it allowed them to get off of his massive salary. They are still weak at the point after Jamal Murray. Patty Mills would make sense for them.
Golden State Warriors: Loser. They haven’t done anything yet. They did lose Kevon Looney who has been an important role player for them for years. Their entire off-season depends on the Jonathan Kuminga saga.
Houston Rockets: Winner. Last season the Rockets were 6th in opponents ppg and 4th in defensive rating. The problem that they had was scoring. In three of the four playoff losses to the Warriors, the Rockets did not score 95 points. Enter Kevin Durant. The Rockets pulled the trigger on a huge trade that sent Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green to the Suns in return for Durant. Last year he averaged 26.6 ppg. They didn’t just add Durant though. The arrivals of Clint Capela and Dorian Finney-Smith are great too. This was a 52 win team that was incredibly deep last year and just got better.
LA Clippers: Winner. Just trading for John Collins and signing Brook Lopez were winning moves. And then they were the recipients of the Bradley Beal buyout and the signing of Chris Paul. Beal is not a max contract player. But he can score and will have less pressure to do so. The Clippers problem last year was their front court depth. After Ivica Zubac, they had to employ Batum as the small ball Center. Now they have Lopez and draft pick Niederhauser from Penn State.
LA Lakers: Loser. Only because of the uncertainty around LeBron James. It is the right move to look to the future. And the Lakers historically have not taken long to reset. The assumption is that the relationship between the Lakers and LeBron in fractured which is why he only accepted the player option on his contract, rather than decline it and sign an extension. Instead, he will be a free agent at the end of the season. They signed Deandre Ayton and that signing will be good if he’s motivated to play. I don’t see how you couldn’t be motivated by playing with LeBron and Luka. They still have the pieces to compete but this seems like a kind of throw away year for them.
Memphis Grizzles: Loser. They didn’t do anything to get better. And they desperately need Ja Morant to stay healthy. He’s played 59 games the last two seasons. They still won 48 games last year but were defeated in four games by the eventual NBA Champion OKC Thunder. They traded Desmond Bane for KCP which is a negative move. And they lost Luke Kennard and his shooting to the Atlanta Hawks. This team had so much promise a couple of years ago and haven’t done much while the other teams in the conference have gotten better.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner. Only because they were able to re-sign Naz Reid. They didn’t really do anything to get better and need Terrence Shannon Jr. and Rob Dillingham to progress.
New Orleans Pelicans: Loser. In the “what the hell are they doing department”. I like the re-signing of Herb Jones. And I realize that the CJ McCollum era with NO didn’t work out that well. Trading him to the Wizards was good because they got back Saddiq Bey. But they also got Jordan Poole in that deal. He’s overpaid for what he brings to the table. They only have him for two years at that contract so at least there’s that. Drafting Jeremiah Fears at #7 was a reach. Trading an unprotected first round pick in next year’s draft to move up to draft Derik Queen was a terrible decision. Unless Queen becomes All-NBA or All-Star that is. Then the “big” (pun intended) elephant in the room that is Zion Williamson. Incredible player when he actually plays. The old saying though is, “the best ability is availability”. He’s been in the league for six seasons and has played in 214 games out of a possble 492. Which comes out to 43.5%. He has played in 70 or more games just once. He has value as a trade asset because of what he COULD bring. But with that injury history; I’m not sure that even the Lakers, Nets or Knicks would take him.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner. Barely. They are a winner because they re-signed their own guys. And they had an incredible season by winning 68 games and the NBA Championship. But they haven’t addressed their biggest flaw from those playoffs which was the inability to score at times. They were taken to seven games by a Nuggets team that had no business being in that series. Jamal Murray barely played better than he did in the regular season. The only non-Jokic player that really showed up for the Nuggets that series was Aaron Gordon. The glaring shooting weakness really surfaced in the finals against the Pacers. Their were multiple times in that series when the Thunder could not buy a bucket. And then keep in mind; if Haliburton doesn’t go down with that severe injury in game seven, there is a real possibility that the Pacers win that game. I love the drafting of Thomas Sorber. He will be able to give extra rest to Holmgren and Hartenstein which will keep them both fresher for the playoffs. And they will need Cason Wallace to increase his shooting percentage. His numbers dipped a bit in his second year. That’s the reason why I say that OKC are more vulnerable than people may think. Incredible team that will likely win around 65 games again this year. Denver and Houston both addressed their weaknesses. The Clippers got better. The playoffs are never easy unless you have a juggernaut like the early 90’s Bulls or 2016 Warriors. OKC is beatable.
Phoenix Suns: Loser. I like Jalen Green but, going from Kevin Durant to Green and Dillon Brooks is a loss right there. They were able to draft Khaman Maluach. But he’s 2 years away at best. They re-signed Devin Booker to a two year extension which will keep him in Phoenix through the ‘29-’30 season. Which isn’t a loss by the way. But for Phoenix to be competitive this year, they will need Booker to average 30 points a night. I don’t see how they don’t end up with a top five pick after this season. Well except for the fact that, if I’m reading this correctly, Memphis can swap picks with them in 2026. Source. Phoenix owner Mat Ishbia tried to buy a title. He didn’t get the memo though that, in this new NBA, big three’s don’t work unless you come across them organically like OKC or Houston. The Beal, Booker and Durant team was terrible. They sacrificed too many good assets that could have helped the big two of Booker and Durant. The pick swaps in ‘24, ‘26, ‘28 and ‘30 are bad enough. But then they traded away their second round picks from ‘24-’28 and another in ‘30. In this new NBA, second round picks are more valuable then ever.
Portland Trail Blazers: Loser. Another team that I’m not sure they know what the direction is. I have no problem with them bringing back Dame. He’s a franchise icon. With his injury, this year is a wash anyway. But why trade a young Anfernee Simons for a 35 year old Jrue Holiday? He’s got two years left on his contract plus a player option for the ‘27-’28 season which he will likely pick up. He’s still a good player but not for $35 million a year. Grabbing Jrue Holiday would have been fine if Portland was competing for a title. But this team has far too many young players that you hope develop to give Jrue playing time. And then trading for Yang Hansen. They didn’t need another developmental big with Clingan on board. He’s was drafted to high at number 16. They could have gotten him in the second round and should have just kept Cedric Coward. They have to hope that any two of Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe or Toumani Camara develop into something special.
Sacramento Kings: Loser. I liked them grabbing Dennis Schroder. He’s a good addition to the team. But Sacramento seriously saw how the LaVine/DeRozan team-up was like in Chicago and thought, “hey, we can fix them”. This is a team with a lot of good number twos. But they don’t have a number one. They will probably compete for the play-in. Which is right in line with a LaVine/DeRozan dynamic. They need Keegan Murray to take the next step. He ascended from year one to year two but then regressed a bit last year. In part due to the addition of Zach LaVine he didn’t get as many shots. But his shooting percentage took a hit as well. Again, I’m not sure what the direction of this team is. If they traded for Vucevic, I wouldn’t be that shocked to be honest.
San Antonio Spurs: Winner. How to rebuild the right way. Of course they needed some luck to get the first pick in the 2023 draft to grab Victor Wembanyama. But them being a winner is more about what they didn’t do. They could have made a run at Durant, Giannis or whomever to try and accelerate the timeline. Instead, they kept both of their first round picks to draft Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant. They are such a deep young team that; barring injury, they will be elite in the years to come. Maybe not this year as they still have some growing to do. Look out for the ‘26-’27 season. I imagine the starting line-up to be Fox, Castle, Vassell, Barnes and Wembanyama. They still have a bench of Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, Sochan, and Olynyk. And if they do want to pull the trigger on a deadline deal, they have the assets to pull it off. You never know who may become available.
Utah Jazz: Loser. We know what they are doing but are they doing it well is the question. I don’t think that they are. They are trying to go big game hunting in the draft. They have some decent young players on the roster. But at some point you have to start building towards something. Right? Ace Bailey when all is said and done, may be looked at as a top three pick in this past draft. I’m intrigued by Walter Clayton Jr. and think that he will be a good role player in this league. I’ve heard good things about Kyle Filipowski this summer and the continued development of Keyonte George and Walker Kessler are paramount. If they get the trophy wife that a top three selection could grant them, I guess the plan will have worked. This is year three of a rebuild and that is typically when you start to see the future take shape.
That’s it for the Western Conference winners and losers. I wanted to touch on something that I wrote in the opening. The funniest timeline is this…the rumor is that LeBron James would be interested in signing with the Dallas Mavericks after the season. LeBron won titles with Kyrie Irving, (who would be back from injury that season) and Anthony Davis. It would just be incredibly funny for Nico Harrison to trade Luka Doncic from Dallas to the Lakers, only for LeBron James to sign with Dallas from the Lakers. They would be a legitimate playoff contender if that happened. But for now, Nico is still an idiot.