Nfl week one predictions
The NFL season is finally upon us! This year feels like it’s flown by and now that football is back, it’s just going to feel quicker. Before I get into the week one predictions, I would like to make a couple predictions for the season as a whole.
There are always teams that make a run to the playoffs that did not make it the year before. I would say that the AFC might be the closest to having every team to make it that made it the year before. It’s possible that Cincinatti makes a run but that defense is still not very good. That offense will have to carry them and as we saw last year, it just isn’t sustainable. All four division champions will remain the same. Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston, and Kansas City. The one team that can make a run in the AFC is the New England Patriots. But, who do they supplant out of the wild card teams? Because they won’t take over for Buffalo as the AFC East Champs. My guess is that Pittsburgh gets in the wild card which leaves the Chargers and Broncos from last year. I like the Broncos, Bo Nix and that defense but, the Chargers got three more weapons on offense with Najee Harris, Omarion Hampton and the returning Keenan Allen. The Broncos miss out on the wild card due to tie-breakers.
The NFC is more wide open. Because of the teams that did not make the playoffs last year, you have a team that had some of the worst injury luck last year that will be better this year. You have a team that should be better if they made the right decision at QB. And then you have another team that will be sneaky good; way better than people might think. I think three of the four division champs remain the same. Philly, Detroit and Tampa Bay should win their divisions. San Francisco will win the NFC West this year. The issue with Matthew Stafford’s back is concerning. Who are going to be the wild card teams in the NFC? I think Washington regresses a little bit. And I think that because I believe that Daniels will have a CJ Stroud type second year. Not a bad year but, not as good as last year. Washington will still make the wild card though. It pains me to say as a Bears fan that Green Bay will make the wild card. And that was going to happen even before the trade for Micah Parsons. I don’t think that Jordan Love will ever be as good as Rodgers was. He’ll have a better year than last year though. The third wild card spot? I like the team that might have made the better choice at QB in Atlanta. Penix Jr. showed some skill last year. Let’s see what he can do with a full season under center. I think that Atlanta falls just short though. How about the team that might be sneaky good? Their defense will be a lot better than people think. And then you add a better QB than they had last year. I’m not talking about Russell Wilson either. Jaxson Dart had an incredible pre-season. And yes, it’s just pre-season. But he showed something and it will be interesting to see when he takes over the gig in New York. And yes, I feel like the Giants will be better than people think. I’ll go out on a limb and say 8-9 wins. It just won’t be enough to make it to the wild card. I think that Minnesota makes it as a seventh seed. Green Bay will have a better record than Minny and actually challenge Detroit for the NFC North crown.
Buffalo will make it to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993. And Philly will be the first team to repeat as a Super Bowl Champion since, well, two years ago when Kansas City did it. I really like Buffalo this year. They improved the defense which was sorely needed. Add the improvement from Khalil Shakur, Keon Coleman and James Cook. That offense will be hard to stop.
Now, on to the picks. I will do two picks for each game. Who I think will win straight up. And my bet against the spread.
Disclaimer: My picks are for entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for anyone using my picks for gambling purposes. Please bet responsibly.
Cowboys @ Eagles; Cowboys +6.5: I’m taking the Eagles both straight up and minus the points. The Cowboys won’t be able to score enough points to hang with Philly.
Chiefs @ Chargers; Chargers +3.5: The Chargers have an improved arsenal of weapons and it will pay dividends. The first upset of the season as LA wins straight up
Buccaneers @ Falcons; Falcons +1.5: Interested to see how Penix plays with a full off-season of first team reps. It will also be interesting to see how the Bucs operate offensively without Coen calling the plays. I think the Bucs win by 3.
Bengals @ Browns; Browns +5.5: The Bengals defense is still going to be a mess…BUT, not nearly the mess the entirety of the Browns are. Double digit win for Cinci.
Dolphins @ Colts; Colts +1.5: I don’t understand this small spread. I’m not a fan of the dysfunction of the Dolphins this year. I don’t think that Tua will play well at all. QB20 at best. And I have a soft spot for Daniel Jones. I think he is closer to the QB he was in ‘22 than he has showed the last two years. They still aren’t a very good team. Dolphins by a TD.
Panthers @ Jaguars; Panthers +2.5: I am not a believer in Young even though he played slightly better the last quarter of the ‘24 season. Going to be interesting the see if Liam Coen is able to harness the potential of Trevor Lawrence or not. Another small spread that I am unsure of why it’s so small. I think the Jags win relatively easy.
Raiders @ Patriots; Raiders +3.5: Pete Carroll. Geno Smith. Ashton Jeanty. The Raiders are improved. Not sure it will be enough over the course of the season. Or week one for that matter. I am huge on New England this year. I think Drake Maye takes that next step to being a top ten QB in the league. The difference in this game will be the Patriots defense. And this is the first game that is not unanimous for me. Patriots win the game by three and the Raiders cover.
Cardinals @ Saints; Saints +5.5: I am not a believer in Kyler Murray. I never have been. I think it’s time for Arizona to move on. However, the Saints are horrible. The Cardinals should win easily.
Steelers @ Jets; Jets +3.5: Two things. People have way too much confidence in Justin Fields and not enough confidence in Aaron Rodgers. Fields played his best last year as a pro. 4-2 record with the highest completion percentage of his career and a 5:1 TD/Int ratio. And this is only his fifth season. He can absolutely get better. I doubt it. Aaron Rodgers on the other hand was QB13 last year all the while having the most dropped passes of any QB in the league last year. And now they switch teams. And Rodgers went from Garrett Wilson to DK Metcalf. Wilson is a good receiver but he’s no Metcalf. Oh yeah, the game. Steelers win by double digits.
Giants @ Commanders; Giants +6.5: I just have to reiterate that the Giants are sneaky good. I truly believe that. That defense is going to be top ten, potentially top five. And Russell Wilson is an upgrade over Daniel Jones. The Commanders win the game but only by a field goal. Giants cover.
Titans @ Broncos; Titans +7.5: I’m not sure how good Cam Ward will be. I’d bet that he won’t have the same first year that CJ Stroud or Jayden Daniels had. The Titans will have to lean on their running game. The Broncos defense is elite. I think that Bo Nix takes a bit of a step back this year. But the Broncos will still win by ten to beat the spread.
49er’s @ Seahawks; Seahawks +2.5: I don’t buy the Sam Darnold experience from last year. He hit lightning in a bottle by having the perfect storm of great play calling and elite receivers. The Niners will dominate this game and remind people that they are still Super Bowl hopefuls.
Lions @ Packers; Lions +1.5: Interesting game. How do the Lions respond to losing both of their coordinators in the off-season? And is that the reason why they are underdogs to the Packers? Micah Parsons makes the Packer defense even better. And rookie Matthew Golden will help out the passing game. How much has Jordan Love improved after this past season? Last possession wins. Detroit by three.
Texans @ Rams; Texans +2.5: Matthew Stafford’s back concerns me. I’m not sure how the Texans are the underdog here. Road game maybe? Texans cover the spread and win the game outright.
Ravens @ Bills; Ravens +1.5: The game of the week for good reason. These will be the two teams that play in the AFC Championship, breaking the Chiefs incredible run. The Bills did what they had to in the off-season. They improved the defense. It will be a close game but the Bills take this heavyweight showdown by a field goal.
Vikings @ Bears; Bears +1.5: The super-unknown, JJ McCarthy gets his first NFL start. If Sam Darnold is any indication, he should have a successful time with Kevin O’Connell. I think the Bears defense is being over-looked. The front four aren’t world beaters but, Dennis Allen is a top tier defensive mind. So is Brian Flores on the other side. A war of attrition. Game winning field goal by Santos propels the Bears to the win.