Dominoes
Today we are playing dominoes. Not the actual game with dominoes, but rather the NBA trade season. I had a feeling that this would be a very active NBA trade deadline even before the rumors of a Giannis exit started popping up. I would not be surprised at all if there were quite a few high profile players on the move in the next five or six weeks.
Let’s start with the fore mentioned Giannis. The problem with trading for a superstar on such a massive contract is the depth you have to give up in return. The two teams most frequently mentioned in any trade of Giannis have been Houston and OKC. Not sure why OKC would get in on the Giannis sweepstakes when they are the defending champs. Although, they can’t seem to beat the Spurs at the moment. So, let’s take a look at Houston. I went to the ESPN trade machine. Just to match salaries to get Giannis ($54,126,450), it would take; Steven Adams ($14,130,434), Dorrian Finney-Smith ($12,700,000), Jabari Smith Jr. ($12,350,392), Reed Sheppard ($10,603,560), and Tari Eason ($5,675,766). Steven Adams could be flipped to a team that needs a good Center. And this doesn’t account for the first round picks and pick swaps that would have likely happen. I’m not saying that this is a realistic trade in any sense. Just pointing out, from a salary standpoint, how difficult it would be to make a trade like this happen. Any trade for Giannis would involve youth along with the picks and matching salaries. Looking at the Knicks which would make a whole lot of sense. They don’t have the youth and the first round picks would be essentially worthless within the next four or five years. Houston and OKC make sense because they have the combination of youth and salaries to match up. San Antonio would make sense also but, I would continue on the route they are on currently and not make a rash decision.
The LA Clippers are a mess. They are currently 11-21 but have surprisingly won 5 straight games to at least sniff the play-in. They don’t outright own any of their first round picks until 2030. OKC will likely get the ‘26 pick. OKC gets to swap picks in ‘27. And why wouldn’t they go from their own pick that will be in the late 20’s to a Clipper pick that could be in the lottery? The ‘28 pick goes to Philly. And the ‘29 pick is another pick swap, but with Philly this time. There are top 3 protections on a couple of those picks but for the sake of arguing, they will likely convey. With the whole Aspirations thing going on, I don’t see anyone making a play for Kawhi. Also that $50 million dollar price tag isn’t easy. I could see someone making a play for Brook Lopez. Team friendly deal that is still able to make plays. Can the Clippers get a young player back for the veteran from a team that is looking to compete for a title? I think that it is likely that James Harden gets dealt. He’s on a better contract than Kawhi is and is also playing better.
Speaking of messes, Sacramento. I still find it funny that an organization saw what happened in Chicago and that org said, “we can fix them”. They didn’t even get DeRozan or Lavine at either of their peaks. Currently sitting at 8-25 and going nowhere fast. Sabonis might have the most value on the team and could get a decent return. There is zero chance that they could trade away Zach Lavine. He’s owed about $48 million for the next two years. Next year is a player option but there is also zero chance that he turns that down. DeRozan on the other hand actually could be got. He’s not a number one but he would make sense for a contending team that needs an almost automatic bucket getter from the mid-range. He’s owed just over $24.5 million this year and next year’s contract is not fully guaranteed. They also own their own picks for the foreseeable future. They just need to get decision makers in the front office that know what they are doing. Otherwise, it’ll be another 20 years before they are relevant again.
What happens with Zion and the Pelicans? I feel like the Pelicans should absolutely try and find a way to get out of that contract. But what is his trade value? Would you want to trade for a guy that has an AAV (Average Annual Value) of just over $42 million for the next three years that cannot stay healthy? Then you have the other albatrosses on this roster like Jordan Poole. Not sure how you get out of that contract. They may be stuck with him for the next two years unless they can trade him as an expiring. The Pels should focus on the youth that they have like Fears, Queen, Murphy III, and Missi.
Where do the Memphis Grizzles go from here? I think that it is quite clear that the team and Ja Morant are headed for a divorce. Are Ja’s antics enough to continue to put up with his off court stuff? $42 million AAV over the next three years like Zion. Not quite as injury prone although there have been a couple of instances. The Grizzles are in a unique position where they have a nice young core even if they did trade Ja. Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey, and Cedric Coward form a nice little trio. What can you get back for Ja that helps this team get back to what they were a few years ago? Fun little fact about this year so far; when Ja plays, the Grizzles are 8-12. When Ja is out, they are 7-5. The superstar is supposed to make you better.
Will Utah ever be a relevant playoff team again? I think that they make some kind of deal, even if it’s just to facilitate for other deals. Nurkic might be the player they trade away since he’s on an expiring and could add value to a contender.
Reports suggest that Anthony Davis is being shopped around the league but the main question is, who would take him? Like Zion, who is going to take a guy that cannot stay healthy? I’ve documented his past several years in another post but he’s only played in sixteen out of a possible 34 this season. Averaging 20.5 points and almost 11 boards when he does play. But his AAV over the next two years is a staggering $56 million. That doesn’t even count the $62+ million that he has as a player option in ‘27-’28.
LaMelo Ball is another case of a guy that cannot stay healthy. He’s played more than fifty games a year twice. His rookie year and his second year. He played 47 last year but it’s just not enough for someone that makes just over $42 million a year for the next four years. He is on pace to play more than fifty this year, but the best ability is availability. If your Charlotte, you have youth to build around outside of LaMelo. Kon Knueppel is playing well as a rookie. Brandon Miller has also been injury prone but there is always hope that he could be healthier in the near future. If you are a team like the Houston Rockets that are in need of a PG, do you take a chance on a very talented, often injured player?
When analysts talk about players, they will sometimes refer to a guy as a “winning player”. How does that particular player affect the team? In other words, are they empty stats guys? I believe that Trae Young is one of those guys. Puts up great stats. He averages 25.2 points per game and 9.8 Assists per game. He’s a four-time all-star. But it’s all just stats. They made a great run in the playoffs where they made the Eastern Conference Finals in ‘20-’21. Since then? The next two years they made the playoffs but were first round exits each year. The last two years they were unable to make it passed the play-in. And this year, the Atlanta Hawks are 12-9 when Trae is not playing. 3-10 when he’s on the court. He has an early termination option after this year, which means that he can opt out and become an unrestricted free agent. His ETO is almost $49 million and it’s likely he would take that money. Because I’m not sure if there are any teams that would pay him more than that. Unless Atlanta was dumb enough to do it. But I think that Atlanta will look to trade Trae anyway so it wouldn’t matter.
Black monday
Speaking of dominoes, Black Monday is nearly upon us. If you are unfamiliar with Black Monday, it’s the Monday after the NFL season when most of the coaches that will be fired are fired. There were two coaches fired during the season in Brian Callahan and Brian DaBoll.
Maybe the most obvious soon to be firing will be Mike McDaniel from the Miami Dolphins. What has happened this year isn’t entirely his fault. Poor roster construction which cost the GM his job earlier this season. And it certainly doesn’t help that Tua regressed so much the last couple of years. But as an outsider, it seems like the Dolphin players have tuned him out. And a change is needed. They might bring in a veteran QB to either take over the starting job, or at the very least to compete with Quinn Ewers for the job. There is a rumor that if McDaniel gets fired that he may already have a job…
Will Cleveland fire Kevin Stefanski? Maybe he should be fired but is it his fault that he has been saddled with this roster? Even without the allegations and subsequent suspension, Deshaun Watson has not played well at all. And he’s been injured for the better part of two years. The distraction around Shadeur Sanders has been unbearable. Maybe a fresh voice is needed. Is Mike McDaniel really that fresh voice? He will be saddled with the same uncertainty that he has with the Dolphins.
The rumor is that Pete Carroll will be fired. It wasn’t a good hire from the beginning. Hard to win with that roster though. They put way too much faith into Geno Smith. They need to get that roster situated, which is going to take a couple of years. So, they need a coach that has a great development background.
I see Raheem Morris being fired from Atlanta, despite the fact that they have won three straight going into the final week of the season. But again, it’s the product of poor front office decisions. Kirk Cousins may not have been the long term answer for this team but, to put that much faith in Michael Penix Jr is insane. He had injury concerns in college. He did have a nice career in college but how many times have we seen good college players flame out in the NFL?
Arizona coach Jonathan Gannon will likely be fired. Again, I’m beating a dead horse, but it comes down to roster construction. Kyler Murray will not be back as the QB for this team. He’s a mid QB at best. Although I do see a team possibly giving him a chance to compete. The Jets or the Raiders just to name a couple.
My “surprise” coaching change will probably come from Tampa Bay. I put surprise in quotations because he hasn’t really been mentioned in hot seat discussions. But it’s clear that the Bucs need a new voice. Todd Bowles has never been a great head coach. He’s had *4 winning seasons out of 9 as the HC. The four is an asterisk because he coached three years for the Dolphins on an interim basis where he was 2-1. This Bucs team is too talented to be fighting for the NFC South the last week of the season.
I’ll put Zak Taylor here also. Not because I think that he gets fired. No one could have endured the Joe Burrow injury. Moreso because I think that he should be fired. They have not ascended beyond that SB run that they had in ‘21. They went 12-4 the following year and lost to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. But since then it’s been back-to-back 9-8 seasons and then this Joe Burrow injury riddled season that they are about to complete. Poor roster construction because defensively they can’t stop anything. They desperately need to figure out that side of the ball.